Saturday, May 11, 2013

Climate Change. Adding a column ... how many deaths, how many species extinct, when and at what scenario?

Feb 2, 2010 article last update 20160816 - Nice:

Here's an "Overview of CO2 concentration level, 
corresponding temperature increases 
and year that concentrations would need to peak to maintain specific concentration levels."
and sustain fauna and human life I'd like to add.

(update 2015: The IPCC maintains its previsions from 2010 in 2015 - the graph with the CO2e concentrations, peak temperature, temperature rise energy equivalent and sea level rise implications are still the same as in the above link)

Can the good people just add 1 more column called "Estimated number of deaths"? Herewith an attempt, as far as I know the science:

CO2 concentration in ppm
(pre-industrial levels at 278 ppm; current levels at 380 ppm)
Global mean temperature increase in C above pre-industrial levelsPeaking year of CO2 / Number of death
350 - 400
2.0 -2.4 °C
sea level rise 0,4-1,4 m
2000 - 2015 / ± 20% of Humanity = 1,2 billion people and 40% of Biodiversity
400 - 440
2.4 - 2.8 °C
sea level rise 0,5-1,7 m
2000 - 2020 / 2 billion people and about 50% of Biodiversity
440 - 485
2.8 - 3.2 °C
sea level rise 0,6-1,9 m
2010 - 2030 / 2,5 billion people and about 70% of Biodiversity
485 - 570
3.2 - 4.0 °C
sea level rise 0,6-2,4 m
2020 - 2060 / 99% of the billion people still left are death and Biodiversity about -90%
570 - 660
4.0 - 4.9 °C
sea level rise 0,8-2,9 m
2050 - 2080 / about 0% human additional casualties and +100% of about 1 type of bacteria. The bacteria is still underway on a meteorite from ... Mars.
It's called "Climate Change", "Low Carbon Economy", ok Scotty? And if it has a name it's ok, okay?

Watch @ 1h5m26s and listen to Prof. Johan ROCKSTRÖM - Prof Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Director Resilience Centre on what +4°C means: 

Reaction: OK, Mr AERTS, we get the point. So when do we have to reach peak temperature for average temperature increase = 0°C by 2020-2050?

Reply: 1990

Reaction: But Mr AERTS, that's in the past and way beyond us?

Reply: Budget for working on a time machine under Climate Change Adaptation = 0 €.

Reaction: Additional info: we're now 2013-may and just as there's another round of climate talks by the world leaders in Bonn, news reached from the measuring stations that we've passed the 400 ppm for the first time in 3 million years.

Reply: It's been reached a couple of years earlier than we thought in 1990 and 2005. We thought we would have a 2 ppm increase/year, reality teaches us we're increasing by 3 ppm/yr. Average sea level rise will be: 0.5 – 1.7 meters.

Remark: Climate change victims versus how many people died in the 2nd World War?

Answer: WW II = over 60 million people lost their lives.

How many people will die with 400 ppm CO2e concentrations = 2.4 - 2.8 °C equivalent additional energy in the Earth's system? 

Answer: EU DG Climate Action: "It is difficult to predict how people react".
That's very diplomatic, but here's the cold hard truth: 2 billion people and about 70% of Biodiversity loss.
As per United Nations International Day for Biological Diversity = 22 May: "70% of the world’s poor live in rural areas and depend directly on biodiversity for their survival and wellbeing."

Reaction:  "The only question now is whether the relentless rise in carbon can be matched by a relentless rise in the activism and carbon money necessary to stop it."

Another graph by the IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Compendium of projected risks due to critical climate change impacts on ecosystems for different levels of global mean annual temperature rise, ∆T, relative to pre-industrial climate

Update 2015 June: @ #EUGreenWeek = Open Doors event of the Directorate General of Environment/Climate Action/Innovationa and #EDD15 = Open Doors event of the Directorate General EuropAid, youth were told to brace for  +4°C #ClimateChange by the European Environment Agency (EEA).  The # deaths # biodiversity lost with +4°C #ClimateChange politicians refuse to answer due to "too many variables".  Really?! When you go to IPCC members private conferences, they will give you the numbers they are not allowed to say because "politicians will interprete the results of the numbers, IPCC members just have to provide them with the right numbers".  Claim your right to know!

Update 2015 September: I want to read this extract with you: "The Council of the European Union, 2. NOTES with concern the findings contained in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pdf, that in order to stay below 2°C, global greenhouse gas emissions need to

  1. peak by 2020 at the latest,
    1. Sven AERTS: Even if we don't emit these insulating greenhouse gasses anymore today, temperature would still rise for some 5 years, because it takes a while until the emitted gasses reach the top regions of the atmosphere. We're 2015, we don't have any global agreement, China and the USA and the Oil producing countries are spewing out greenhouse gasses more than ever before, so there is no way we're going to reach a peak temperature by 2020. So there is NO WAY we are going to stay under a global climate destabilisation equivalent to a 2°C energy increase.  So the columns above ... stand and the consequences are catastrophic.
  2. be reduced by at least 50% by 2050 compared to 1990[1] 
  3. and be near zero or below by 2100; 
  4. transformative pathways towards a long-term vision of global and sustainable climate neutrality and climate resilience in the second half of this century; 
  5. RECALLS the EU objective, in the context of necessary reductions according to the IPCC by developed countries as a group, to reduce emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990.
  6. enable the participation of all Parties and engagement of non-state actors; 
    1. Sven AERTS: well, then I'd like to see more funding to engage the diaspora we have here in the EU as we do in and
  7. -   contain a dynamic five-yearly mitigation ambition mechanism in which all Parties should be required to either submit new or updated commitments, 
  8. Adaptation: commits all Parties to plan, prepare for and respond to the adverse impacts of climate change, to integrate adaptation into national development processes and to communicate experiences in order to achieve climate-resilient sustainable development;  contributes to assisting all countries, especially the poorest and particularly vulnerable ones, to achieve climate-resilient sustainable development
  9. in order to contribute their share of the developed countries' goal to jointly mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in order to contribute their share of the developed countries' goal to jointly mobilise USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and REITERATES its strong support for the Green Climate Fund and LOOKS FORWARD to early allocation of initial funding
  10.  STRESSES the importance of human rights, gender equality, a gender-sensitive approach, a just transition of the work force, decent jobs, education and awareness raising as well as ensuring food security in the context of climate action. 
    1. My Sven AERTS contribution to Millennium Goal nr 2 - Universal Primary Education by 2015: OLPC - One Laptopschool Per Child.  The only society transformational break away solution that brought Universal Primary Education in the places where it has been rolled out: Uruguay, Peru, Rwanda.
  11. STRESSES that all Parties need to act in order to close the pre-2020 mitigation gap (on world level); RECALLS the progress made under the ADP in identifying opportunities to enhance pre‑2020 mitigation ambition in areas of high mitigation potential, in particular energy efficiency, renewable energy, REDD+, short-lived climate pollutants, upstream methane emissions, HFCs, export credits and fossil fuel subsidy reform; .. STRESSES the importance of involvement of and cooperation with non-State actors"
    1. Sven AERTS: CO2e certificates from "Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD)", projects - these are integrated sustainable projects based upon reforestation and additional planting of trees and relocating people to better living places and creating local jobs with them.  Unfortunately, the NGO's lobbied so hard, that the CO2e certificates from such CO2e reducing projects cannot be used under the EU Emission Trading System.  Thank you NGO's really great way to go. Just because there is some corrupt idiots in Asian countries where they cut trees in a nature reserve, then plant palm trees and claim CO2e certificates. Of course this was detected and the CO2e certificates annulled. The NGO's should have lobbied for a "red alarm" button on the website of the UNFCCC, so that the form to enter in the UNFCCC when you detect irregularities can be more easily found, certifiers go on site to check and write out the fines.  NGO's threw out the kid with the bathwater here.  Most diaspora here in Europe have families who depend on and are in agriculture.  Planting trees and reforestation projects, sustainable and integrated, are the easiest to do.  But ... thanks to the over-lobbying from NGO's, the diaspora has now been excluded as CO2e certificates from tree planting are not allowed in the EU. STUPID STUPID STUPID !  Support : !!! With time or money.
  12. WELCOMES the completion of the REDD+ negotiations
    1. Sven AERTS: so the Industry lobby got an over allocation of EUA's - European Union Allowances and the NGO lobby - iso lobbying that - their contribution was that poor people planting trees, their CO2e certificates cannot be used in the EU Emission Trading System.  And as we are business minded, we're not welcome in the NGO Climate Alliance.  Well, that's why we've created and - poor people can't afford NOT to be entrepreneurial, cause the NGO's are not going to come save them.
  13. LOOKS FORWARD to the upcoming UN Summit that will adopt the agenda “Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development” in order to address the universal challenge of poverty eradication and sustainable development and that confirms the importance of tackling climate change as a key element in confronting that challenge.
  14. as per: press-releases /2015/09/18 Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol in Paris 2015
Update 20160816: 
The remaining net amount of CO2 that can still be released to the atmosphere in order to keep temperatures rise below 1.5C is close to zero. Even in the most optimistic case, it will not take longer than five years to exhaust the remaining carbon budget at current rates of CO2 emissions.

1 comment:

Sven AERTS said...

Update: CO2 Levels Have Reached a Scary New Milestone 410.31 ppm - congratulations to us all.